← VGMX Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at VGMX Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1432
· range 1432–1432
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1114
Q3 1258
1432
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -24.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
