← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slimes | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 100.0% | 68.1% | 63.3% | 59.5% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 75.0% | 62.6% | 57.3% | 55.4% | 1297 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 53.9% | 55.0% | 51.6% | 1330 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.6% | 52.0% | 51.3% | 1143 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.1% | 50.0% | 51.7% | 1207 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.2% | 50.0% | 51.4% | 1059 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.5% | 48.0% | 50.3% | 1142 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.4% | 48.0% | 49.1% | 1143 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.8% | 45.3% | 44.3% | 1269 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.8% | 41.7% | 45.6% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Chess | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.8% | 40.0% | 41.1% | 1107 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.8% | 40.0% | 41.1% | 1107 | ↓ low |