← GG NPHX Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GG NPHX Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 8.3% 5 100.0% 68.9% 60.0% 56.8% 1562 ↑ top
2 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 63.9% 55.0% 55.5% 1292
3 Horse and Taxes 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 64.5% 55.0% 55.8% 1362 ↑ top
4 Water Aetherwing 1 8.3% 4 62.5% 65.7% 52.5% 56.3% 1194 ↓ low
5 Wind Shadowstrike 1 8.3% 4 62.5% 47.1% 52.5% 48.9% 1333
6 Water Fractal 1 8.3% 5 60.0% 58.5% 52.0% 53.1% 1262
7 Fire Aggro 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 44.9% 50.0% 48.0% 1368 ↑ top
8 Wind Allies 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 40.7% 50.0% 46.3% 1597 ↑ top
9 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 40.7% 50.0% 46.3% 1597 ↑ top
10 Water Ravishing Mill 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 39.4% 45.0% 45.8% 1183 ↓ low
11 Wind Arisanna 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 43.3% 45.0% 47.3% 1046 ↓ low
12 Water Genbu 1 8.3% 5 20.0% 42.1% 44.0% 47.2% 1147 ↓ low
13 Wind Jin 1 8.3% 5 0.0% 30.4% 40.0% 42.9% 1250