← PTM Store Champion at Oinker's Island
Water FractalTier 2
at PTM Store Champion at Oinker's Island
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.3%
avg ELO -7.5 per match
expected value
42.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1111
· median 1111
· range 1111–1111
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1227
Q3 1368
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
