← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 1/15/2026
Dawn of AshesTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 1/15/2026
decks
1
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-1-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1376
· median 1376
· range 1376–1376
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1177
Q3 1376
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
