← Strictly Broken TCG Phantom Monarch Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Strictly Broken TCG Phantom Monarch Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |