← Strictly Broken TCG Phantom Monarch Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Strictly Broken TCG Phantom Monarch Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.7%
avg ELO -7.9 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1145
· median 1145
· range 1145–1145
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1210
Q3 1328
1578
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
