← CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.4% | -21.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.6% | +6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.0 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.0% | +6.8 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |