← CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
decks
4
(3.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
14-11-3
overall winrate
55.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1260
· median 1256
· range 1060–1470
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1164
Q3 1374
1736
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -3.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.0 |
| Water Chess | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.8% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Fire Alice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.1% | -25.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
