Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1267
· median 1267
· range 1267–1267
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1123
Q1 1231
Q3 1444
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Astra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
