Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-1-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1%
avg ELO +6.8 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1259
· median 1259
· range 1259–1259
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1123
Q1 1231
Q3 1444
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Arcane | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Astra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
