← IKI Store Championship PTM Season
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at IKI Store Championship PTM Season
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-8-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.0%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
40.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1155
· median 1155
· range 1120–1191
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1191
Q3 1389
1446
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 17.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
