EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 店冠.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 25.0% | 11 | 77.3% | 64.1% | 57.9% | 55.4% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 61.7% | 55.0% | 59.1% | 1360 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 42.1% | 51.7% | 44.9% | 1568 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1326 | — |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 43.2% | 48.6% | 42.0% | 1694 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 46.7% | 47.8% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.7% | 45.0% | 49.9% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.1% | 43.3% | 48.7% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.4% | 40.0% | 44.7% | 1078 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.5% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1151 | ↓ low |