← SGCCC Phantom Monarchs season Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at SGCCC Phantom Monarchs season Store Championship
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.6%
avg ELO +6.0 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1211
· range 1105–1317
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1182
Q3 1321
1433
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 75.4% | +24.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
