← Hans Arena Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Hans Arena Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Neos | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |