Water AlliesTier 2
at ストアチャンピオンシップ in HASUYA
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Merlin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Longsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Confidant's Oath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reverse Affliction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Whimsy's Warden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devotion's Price | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Eventide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coy Bouclier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dian Wei, Valorant Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |