Water MerlinTier 2
at ストアチャンピオンシップ in HASUYA
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.9%
avg ELO -7.5 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1412
· median 1412
· range 1412–1412
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1128
Q3 1386
1545
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
