EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Lokalne Granie.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 51.8% | 60.0% | 50.6% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 52.6% | 56.0% | 51.2% | 1268 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 52.3% | 55.0% | 50.9% | 1227 | — |
| 4 | Slimes | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.9% | 52.8% | 50.8% | 1087 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 52.0% | 50.5% | 1218 | — |
| 6 | Wind Neos | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 51.2% | 50.2% | 1187 | — |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.4% | 48.0% | 49.5% | 1166 | — |
| 9 | Wind Chess | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 48.0% | 49.6% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Astra Ranger | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.6% | 46.7% | 49.3% | 1193 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 8.3% | 45.8% | 40.5% | 48.3% | 1165 | — |