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Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at [TCG Collector] Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
24.5%
avg ELO -16.3 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1188
· median 1188
· range 1188–1188
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1156
Q3 1386
1454
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
