← [TCG Collector] Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
Water Crux MageTier 2
at [TCG Collector] Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1074
· median 1074
· range 1074–1074
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1156
Q3 1386
1454
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
