← MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1499
· median 1499
· range 1499–1499
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1119
Q1 1206
Q3 1402
1548
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Genbu | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
