← MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-5-2
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1290–1345
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1119
Q1 1206
Q3 1402
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.8% | +17.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% | -7.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
