EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champion Ship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 91.7% | 66.3% | 61.7% | 57.2% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 59.1% | 55.0% | 54.2% | 1372 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 55.2% | 54.7% | 52.6% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.8% | 53.3% | 55.3% | 1377 | — |
| 5 | Fire Suited | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 52.0% | 52.5% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 44.4% | 35.1% | 50.0% | 45.6% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.6% | 49.3% | 51.6% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.6% | 45.0% | 47.2% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Slice & Dice | 2 | 16.7% | 6 | 8.3% | 38.7% | 41.4% | 46.5% | 1121 | ↓ low |