← Kobold's Keep Store Championship 1/19/2026
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Kobold's Keep Store Championship 1/19/2026.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Chess | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.6% | 52.5% | 50.2% | 1263 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 52.0% | 52.6% | 1199 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 53.3% | 51.7% | 51.1% | 1292 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Exia | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.1% | 50.0% | 49.2% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 58.9% | 50.0% | 51.5% | 1228 | — |
| 7 | Wind Neos | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.3% | 46.0% | 46.8% | 1213 | — |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.7% | 45.0% | 45.9% | 1205 | — |