← Kobold's Keep Store Championship 1/19/2026

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Kobold's Keep Store Championship 1/19/2026. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Chess 1 11.1% 4 62.5% 51.6% 52.5% 50.2% 1263 ↑ top
2 Water Fractal 1 11.1% 4 50.0% 52.8% 52.0% 52.6% 1199
3 Wind Shadowstrike 2 22.2% 7 57.1% 53.3% 51.7% 51.1% 1292 ↑ top
4 Fire Exia 1 11.1% 3 50.0% 50.4% 50.0% 50.2% 1163 ↓ low
5 Fire Aggro 1 11.1% 3 33.3% 42.1% 50.0% 49.2% 1196 ↓ low
6 Horse and Taxes 1 11.1% 4 62.5% 58.9% 50.0% 51.5% 1228
7 Wind Neos 1 11.1% 4 37.5% 44.3% 46.0% 46.8% 1213
8 Wind Seiryuu 1 11.1% 3 33.3% 43.7% 45.0% 45.9% 1205