← Grand Archive TCG - PTM Store Championship @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - PTM Store Championship @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.8%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1188
· median 1188
· range 1188–1188
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1085
Q1 1177
Q3 1340
1480
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
