EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Champhionship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 83.3% | 70.4% | 58.0% | 58.2% | 1387 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suited | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 75.0% | 63.0% | 56.7% | 55.9% | 1364 | — |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 47.2% | 52.5% | 48.9% | 1359 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.1% | 52.0% | 51.9% | 1352 | — |
| 5 | Slimes | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 60.2% | 50.8% | 55.2% | 1259 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.9% | 50.0% | 48.8% | 1411 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 59.8% | 50.0% | 53.9% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 50.0% | 47.3% | 1350 | — |
| 9 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 39.5% | 47.5% | 45.8% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.1% | 45.0% | 46.4% | 1399 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 30.6% | 45.0% | 42.2% | 1437 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.6% | 40.0% | 43.0% | 1237 | ↓ low |