Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Epicly Games store champ
decks
3
(17.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-7-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1282
· range 1216–1335
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1158
Q3 1318
1617
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.5% | +4.8 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.0% | +4.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.3% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Neos | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
