Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Epicly Games store champ
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.2%
avg ELO -14.8 per match
expected value
41.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1312
· median 1312
· range 1312–1312
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1158
Q3 1318
1617
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.2% | -11.3 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
