← 貓腳印-新莊店 0124 PTM Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 貓腳印-新莊店 0124 PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.0%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1211
· range 1211–1211
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
996
Q1 1214
Q3 1392
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
