← 貓腳印-新莊店 0124 PTM Store Championship
Wind Umbra CielTier 2
at 貓腳印-新莊店 0124 PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1068
· median 1068
· range 1068–1068
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
996
Q1 1214
Q3 1392
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
