EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 100.0% | 66.2% | 60.0% | 56.5% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 68.7% | 55.0% | 57.5% | 1279 | — |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 1244 | — |
| 4 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 64.7% | 55.0% | 55.9% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 38.7% | 50.0% | 45.5% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 50.0% | 48.3% | 1259 | — |
| 7 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.4% | 45.0% | 47.0% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 10.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% | 42.5% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.1% | 40.0% | 44.0% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | 1349 | ↑ top |