Fire AggroTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.5%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1227
· median 1227
· range 1086–1368
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1368
Q3 1502
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 22.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.8% | +16.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
