← Xepher Arcade Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Xepher Arcade Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.7%
avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1215
· median 1215
· range 1184–1247
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1162
Q1 1184
Q3 1272
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
