← Grand Archive Store Championship- PTM
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship- PTM
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-0-2
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1689
· median 1689
· range 1689–1689
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1224
Q3 1415
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Chess | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
