← Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water Crux MerlinTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.4%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1161
· median 1161
· range 1161–1161
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1146
Q3 1334
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
