EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 1248 | — |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 100.0% | 66.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 47.8% | 53.3% | 49.0% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 50.0% | 41.2% | 50.0% | 44.7% | 1476 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.3% | 46.7% | 50.1% | 1237 | — |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.4% | 46.7% | 48.8% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 1233 | — |
| 8 | Wind Chess | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 42.8% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1051 | ↓ low |