← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship @ TOTL Games
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship @ TOTL Games
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-2-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1320
· median 1320
· range 1270–1370
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1188
Q3 1342
1438
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 18.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Alice | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
