EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at SR Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 83.3% | 67.3% | 58.3% | 56.9% | 1321 | — |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.6% | 54.7% | 52.4% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 47.0% | 54.7% | 49.5% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 66.2% | 53.3% | 55.4% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.9% | 50.0% | 52.0% | 1245 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.9% | 50.0% | 47.5% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 44.4% | 50.0% | 47.8% | 1311 | — |
| 8 | Wind Chess | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 37.1% | 45.0% | 44.8% | 1341 | — |
| 9 | Fire Astra Ranger | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 44.7% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 39.3% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1127 | ↓ low |