← VPC Store Champ - PTM Season
Water GenbuTier 1
at VPC Store Champ - PTM Season
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
8-2-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.4%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
58.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1483
· median 1483
· range 1416–1550
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1263
Q3 1429
1648
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
