← TDK Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at TDK Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1411
· median 1394
· range 1331–1508
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1175
Q3 1363
1593
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
