← TDK Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at TDK Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -4.0 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1165–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1175
Q3 1363
1593
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
