EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CMB- GA Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 87.5% | 52.3% | 61.7% | 52.3% | 1750 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 59.8% | 57.8% | 55.8% | 1549 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 47.9% | 57.1% | 51.2% | 1576 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 75.4% | 54.3% | 60.5% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 70.0% | 48.4% | 54.0% | 49.4% | 1436 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 18.8% | 11 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 53.6% | 52.5% | 1366 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 53.3% | 50.6% | 1480 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 61.1% | 51.4% | 56.5% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 61.1% | 51.4% | 56.5% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.5% | 48.3% | 49.1% | 1344 | — |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 54.0% | 46.4% | 50.8% | 1292 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Fractal | 3 | 18.8% | 12 | 8.3% | 15.5% | 39.3% | 38.6% | 1309 | ↓ low |