← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1447
· median 1447
· range 1447–1447
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
997
Q1 1161
Q3 1425
1525
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
