← Cardpoint Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Cardpoint Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 1 12.5% 3 100.0% 58.7% 60.0% 54.1% 1584 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Mage 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 53.9% 55.0% 53.1% 1334
3 Fire Aggro 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 65.9% 55.0% 58.4% 1297 ↓ low
4 Water Fractal 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 62.5% 55.0% 56.9% 1294 ↓ low
5 Fire Suited 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 40.3% 50.0% 48.1% 1361
6 Slimes 2 25.0% 4 0.0% 28.5% 40.0% 41.4% 1271 ↓ low
7 Wind Seiryuu 1 12.5% 1 0.0% 40.5% 40.0% 40.5% 1336