Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at Cardpoint Regionals PTM
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.4%
avg ELO -5.5 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1277
· median 1277
· range 1277–1277
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1206
Q3 1329
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | -17.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
