Water AetherwingTier 2
at Cardpoint Regionals PTM
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1229
· median 1229
· range 1174–1285
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1206
Q3 1329
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Water Overlord | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
