← Solar Quester Grand Archive PTM Store Championship

Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1

at Solar Quester Grand Archive PTM Store Championship

decks
2 (15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1% avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
51.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1334 · median 1334 · range 1284–1384 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046 Q1 1192 Q3 1384 1509
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 7.7% 0
Fire Exia 7.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.8% +10.9
Fire Suited 7.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.3
Fire Tera Tamer 7.7% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 7.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.7% +4.3
Horse and Taxes 7.7% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 7.7% 0
Wind Crux Mage 7.7% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.6% -0.7
Wind Shadowstrike 7.7% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 7.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.6% -18.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 7.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.4
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing +1.00 1 0 0
Heavy Swing +1.00 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Undeniable Truth -1.00 0 1 0
Feu Awakening -1.00 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen -1.00 0 1 0
Topsy Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Devastating Blow -1.00 0 1 0
Overlapping Visages +1.00 1 0 0
Gentle Respite -1.00 0 1 0
Lost Providence +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 1 0 0
Unmake Duality -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
The Looking Glass -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Annul Spell +1.00 1 0 0
Nocturne's Oblivion +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/43691/archetypes/Fire Umbra Guardian