Water AetherwingTier 1
at Phantom Monarch Regional
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1378
· median 1378
· range 1378–1378
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1163
Q3 1336
1405
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 21.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
