← HBST DIGINEKO PTM STORE CHAMPIONSHIP 31ST JAN
Water FractalTier 1
at HBST DIGINEKO PTM STORE CHAMPIONSHIP 31ST JAN
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-4-1
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.3%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1285
· median 1285
· range 1182–1387
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1186
Q3 1386
1446
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
