Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at JWW PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-0-1
overall winrate
91.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.6%
avg ELO +9.9 per match
expected value
63.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
61.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1538
· median 1538
· range 1538–1538
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1146
Q3 1410
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 31.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.7% | +17.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
